I Guess Reading and Righting Is Steel the One Saction.

The U.South. delivers its written response to Russia'south demands in Eastern Europe.

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Blinken Calls U.Due south. Letter to Russia a 'Diplomatic Path Forrard'

The United States delivered a written response to Russian federation's demands in Eastern Europe, which included its concerns over escalating military tensions in the region.

Russian federation had previously outlined its concerns and proposals in writing. And concluding calendar week, I told Foreign Minister Lavrov the Us would do the same. Today, Ambassador Sullivan delivered our written response in Moscow. All told, it sets out a serious diplomatic path forward, should Russia choose it. The document we've delivered includes concerns of the U.s. and our allies and partners almost Russia's deportment that undermine security, a principled and pragmatic evaluation of the concerns that Russia has raised, and our own proposals for areas where we may be able to find common footing. We make clear that there are core principles that we are committed to uphold and defend, including Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity, and the right of states to cull their own security arrangements and alliances. We're not releasing the certificate publicly, because nosotros call up that diplomacy has the best chance to succeed if nosotros provide space for confidential talks. We hope and expect that Russia volition have the same view, and will take our proposal seriously.

The United states delivered a written response to Russia's demands in Eastern Europe, which included its concerns over escalating military tensions in the region. Credit Credit... Pool photo by Brendan Smialowski

The U.s.a. and NATO gave formal responses on Wednesday to Russia's demands that NATO pull back forces from Eastern Europe and ban Ukraine from ever joining the alliance, amid escalating war machine tensions in Eastern Europe.

Russian federation had been insisting for weeks that the United States provide written responses to the Kremlin'due south demands before it would make up one's mind on its next course of action, while asserting that it had no plans to invade Ukraine.

Both Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken and the Russian Foreign Ministry said that the American ambassador to Moscow, John J. Sullivan, had personally delivered the United States' written response to the ministry building. Jens Stoltenberg, the NATO secretarial assistant full general, said NATO had also sent its reply.

The American response "sets out a serious diplomatic path forward should Russia cull information technology," Mr. Blinken said at a news conference in Washington. He said he expected to speak in the coming days with his Russian counterpart, Sergey Five. Lavrov, once Russian officials had read the American paper and were "set up to discuss adjacent steps."

The document suggests "reciprocal transparency measures regarding force posture in Ukraine, as well every bit measures to increase confidence regarding armed services exercises and maneuvers in Europe," Mr. Blinken said, as well every bit nuclear arms control in Europe.

The Biden assistants has already fabricated such proposals, so it is unclear whether the American response volition accept any upshot on the growing crisis over Russia'south huge troop buildup along Ukraine's borders.

"It reiterates publicly what nosotros've said for many weeks," Mr. Blinken said.

Mr. Blinken said that the United States had not moved from its refusal to consider ruling out the possibility of futurity Ukrainian membership in NATO, equally President Vladimir Five. Putin of Russia has demanded. Only President Biden and other American officials have said at that place is little possibility Ukraine could join the alliance anytime soon.

"We make clear that there are core principles that we are committed to uphold and defend, including Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity, and the right of states to choose their own security arrangements and alliances," Mr. Blinken said.

Russia has as well demanded that the United States remove nuclear weapons from Europe and withdraw troops and weapons from former Soviet bloc countries that joined the alliance subsequently 1997. The United States has deemed those demands "nonstarters."

Russia'south Foreign Ministry confirmed that Mr. Sullivan had delivered the American response in a meeting with the deputy strange minister, Aleksandr V. Grushko. The terse ministry statement gave no indication of the document'southward contents.

Mr. Blinken said that the Usa' response was drafted in close consultation with European allies. "At that place's no daylight amid the United States and our allies and partners on these matters," he said.

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NATO Urges Russian federation to Engage in Talks as Military Tensions Escalate

The NATO secretary general Jens Stoltenberg criticized Russian federation's connected war machine buildup along Ukraine's borders but stressed that a diplomatic solution to the standoff was still possible.

Tensions are increasing. Russia continues its military machine buildup, and nosotros see too more troops not only in and around Ukraine, just also now in Republic of belarus. This takes place under the disguise of an practice, only it integrates very much the Russian forces and the Belarusian forces, and these are highly capable, combat-ready troops, and that in that location is no transparency on these deployments. It shows that in that location is no de-escalation. On the contrary, it's actually more than troops, more capabilities, in more than countries. A political solution is still possible, but then, of form, Russia has to appoint in good religion. We accept made our proposals. We are listening — nosotros are fix to heed to those Russian concerns and appoint in reciprocal efforts to find a way forward.

The NATO secretary general Jens Stoltenberg criticized Russia's continued military buildup along Ukraine's borders simply stressed that a diplomatic solution to the standoff was all the same possible. Credit Credit... Stephanie Lecocq/EPA, via Shutterstock

Mr. Stoltenberg said at an evening news briefing that NATO'due south answer to Russia, like the American one, independent proposals for specific areas of negotiation about arms control and transparency of war machine exercises, and suggested reopening liaison offices between NATO and Moscow.

"A political solution is all the same possible," he said. "But Russia has to appoint."

At the same fourth dimension, NATO has increased the readiness of a v,000-member rapid-response force, currently led by France, able to deploy apace to back up alliance members. Mr. Stoltenberg noted the continuing buildup of Russian forces near Ukraine and, virtually worrying, he suggested, the integration of Russian and Belarusian forces "nether the disguise of an do" with sophisticated weapons, including S400 air-defense systems.

The U.s. would non release its response publicly, Mr. Blinken said, adding that he hoped Russia would accept the same arroyo. There is no guarantee that Moscow — known for its defiant negotiating tactics — will listen Washington's appeal.

Mr. Blinken did not indicate what he expected next from the Russians, or when.

"Whether they cull the path of diplomacy and dialogue, whether they decide to renew aggression confronting Ukraine," he said, "nosotros're prepared either mode."

Michael Schwirtz and Steven Erlanger contributed reporting.

The Kremlin dismisses Biden'southward talk of sanctioning Putin, saying it would not influence Russia.

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Credit... Tyler Hicks/The New York Times

Any U.S. sanctions levied personally against President Vladimir V. Putin would not bear on Russia's course of action on Ukraine, the Kremlin spokesman said on Midweek, brushing off President Biden'south argument on Tuesday that he would be willing to impose such penalties if Russian forces invaded Ukraine.

Diplomatic talks to resolve the crisis accept yielded nothing but promises to keep talking, and while all sides say they want de-escalation, the war of words betwixt Washington and Moscow is intensifying.

In that context, the Kremlin spokesman, Dmitri S. Peskov, said personal sanctions would be counterproductive, while having little fiscal consequence. "Information technology wouldn't exist painful politically — it would be subversive," he said.

For weeks, the Biden assistants has warned Russian federation that it would impose punishing economic sanctions if it invaded Ukraine. In a brief White House appearance on Tuesday, Mr. Biden gave what appeared to exist an off-the-cuff response to a shouted question from a reporter virtually whether those penalties could direct target Mr. Putin. "Yes, I would see that," the president said. He did non elaborate.

It is not clear exactly what moves Mr. Biden is weighing, or whether sanctions confronting Mr. Putin are even existence actively considered.

Merely American openness to targeting the leader of a world power straight reflects the administration's intent to deter Russian aggression by conveying the high costs information technology would incur.

Russia has said it has no intention of invading Ukraine, despite massing forces along the country's borders to the northward, e and south. Mr. Putin has not commented publicly on the crunch since Dec. 23, silence that has kept Western leaders unsure near his next move.

At a news briefing last week, Mr. Biden said he expected that Russia would ultimately invade Ukraine. But he best-selling on Tuesday how hard it could exist to read the Russian leader.

"I'll be completely honest with you: It's a piffling fleck like reading tea leaves," he said, according to a White House transcript. "Unremarkably, if information technology were a different leader — the fact that he continues to build forces along Ukraine's border from Belarus all the mode around — you'd say, 'Well, that ways that he is looking like he's going to practise something.' But then you await at what his past behavior is and what everyone is proverb in his team, as well every bit everyone else, every bit to what is likely to happen: It all comes downward to his — his decision."

Britain's foreign secretary, Liz Truss, signaled on Wednesday that her government would besides consider directly targeting Mr. Putin with sanctions.

Because Moscow has demanded that NATO forces essentially withdraw from the region — a request that American officials have described as a nonstarter — the path to a diplomatic solution is hard to meet.

Both Russia and Western nations have stepped upwards military activity, with Russia holding drills virtually the Ukrainian borders, the Usa putting eight,500 troops on high alert for deployment, and NATO increasing its deployments in the region.

David E. Sanger contributed reporting.

What U.S. sanctions on Putin might look similar.

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Credit... Sergei Ilyin/Sputnik, via Agence France-Presse - Getty Images

President Biden and other Western leaders have already threatened Russian federation with harsh sanctions if President Vladimir V. Putin moves troops into Ukraine. As tensions escalated this calendar week, Mr. Biden warned the Russian president he might personally target him with sanctions if Russian forces invaded.

But how personal is personal?

While it was unclear exactly what measures Mr. Biden was referring to, the administration can motion to seize an private's avails and bar travel to the United states by calculation the person to what is known as the Specially Designated Nationals list. But it is far from clear that such a move would matter to Mr. Putin.

The Obama administration weighed sanctioning Mr. Putin personally after the invasion and annexation of Crimea in 2014 and interference in the U.South. presidential election in 2016. Just the White House decided confronting information technology, in part to avoid the appearance of a straight clash between two presidents, which Mr. Putin might enjoy.

Although he is believed to have amassed a great deal of personal wealth, it's highly unlikely that any of it is in the U.s.a.. And any wealth Mr. Putin has is non only well hidden from Americans but inside Russia as well, said James Nixey, the manager of the Russian federation-Eurasia program at the Chatham House, a inquiry organization in London.

"A lot of his personal wealth seems owned or safeguarded by his cronies," Mr. Nixey said. When a controversy erupted over a palatial manor on the Black Sea said to vest to Mr. Putin, for example, the Russian billionaire Arkady Rotenberg stepped upward to say he was the owner.

In addition, U.S. officials say that Russians have become more adept at shielding their wealth from sanctions over the last several years.

A travel ban, experts said, would also have limited impact.

"They tin can finish Vladimir Putin from vacationing in Disneyland," said Jeffrey Schott, a senior beau at the Peterson Institute for International Economic science in Washington.

"These types of actions have been taken in the past against leaders of second-, third- and fourth-rate powers, non generally confronting major adversaries, considering you still have to bargain with them," Mr. Schott said. "This is not going to change annihilation."

Experts said that personal sanctions on leaders like Mr. Putin are very hard to implement. Mr. Nixey said that what would probably be more effective "is to target the people around him, the inner circumvolve."

Some of Putin's inner circle, he said, clearly does take assets abroad, and they frequently travel, shop, send their children to schoolhouse or live outside of Russian federation. "If his closest allies are not enjoying the type of life they want to pb," Mr. Nixey said, that would put pressure on Mr. Putin over the longer run. Just sanctions against members of this group take non been very harsh so far, he added.

"The West is playing a game of chicken right now," Mr. Nixey said. "Nosotros've tried no sanctions, and fairly weak sanctions," but not very tough ones.

Other penalties targeting Russia's behemothic energy companies and banks would hurt more, but the pain could be felt even more sharply in Europe, which gets about a third of its natural gas from Russian federation.

"The question is whether the U.S. and Europe are ready to bear the toll of this," said Maria Shagina, a visiting young man at the Finnish Constitute of International Affairs.

Correction :

Jan. 27, 2022

An earlier version of this commodity misstated the given name of the visiting fellow at the Finnish Establish of International Affairs. She is Maria Shagina, not Marina.

Putin'south monthlong silence on Ukraine keeps anybody guessing.

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Credit... Yuri Kochetkov/EPA, via Shutterstock

MOSCOW — Amid all the fright and guesswork over the possibility that President Vladimir Five. Putin could presently order an set on on Ukraine, one man has been conspicuously silent: Mr. Putin.

In November and December, Mr. Putin spoke out almost Ukraine repeatedly, pairing Russia's ominous military buildup with threatening messaging. At an end-of-the-year news briefing on December. 23, Mr. Putin warned that Russia needed "guarantees" that Ukraine would never bring together the NATO alliance, "right away, correct now."

That news briefing, more than a month ago, was the last fourth dimension that Mr. Putin spoke out about the current crisis over Ukraine, or about Russian federation'southward demands that NATO roll back its presence in Eastern Europe. Ever since — even as Russian and American diplomats sparred in Geneva, Ukraine received Western weapons deliveries and President Biden predicted Mr. Putin would mountain an invasion — Mr. Putin has said nix almost the matter in public.

On Wednesday, Mr. Putin held a video briefing with Italian executives about doing concern in Russia. In his televised opening remarks, Mr. Putin discussed Moscow'south candidacy to host the Expo 2030 world'south fair and spoke at length nearly green-energy investment opportunities. He said nothing almost the war fears and sanctions threats that have the Russian economic system hanging in the balance.

"Nosotros're in a suspended country," said Tatiana Stanovaya, a nonresident scholar at the Carnegie Moscow Center. "Putin is laying low."

Equally with all things when it comes to Mr. Putin's foreign policy, the president'south remarkable silence in a high-stakes drama that revolves around him appeared designed, in part, to keep the Westward guessing at his intentions. It stood in contrast to the relentless speculation in Washington, where Mr. Biden has been asked repeatedly to render judgment on the likelihood of a Russian invasion of Ukraine. And it underscored the Kremlin's discipline in controlling its bulletin, with officials insisting that they would not make any decisions until the United States submitted a written response to Russian federation's demands to halt the expansion of NATO.

"Let's first become the response," Dmitri Southward. Peskov, the Kremlin'due south spokesman, said this week when asked virtually Russian federation'south stance. "Then the position will be formulated based on the conceptual guidelines provided by the caput of state."

France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine meet in search of ways to ease the conflict, and concur to proceed talking.

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Credit... Pool photo by Tobias Schwarz

PARIS — Bringing together senior Russian and Ukrainian officials, France and Germany tried on Wednesday to coax the countries into easing tensions betwixt them, earlier planned talks on Friday between the French and Russian presidents.

With Russian forces massed almost the borders of Ukraine, senior diplomats at the gathering known as the Normandy Format — a diplomatic group of France, Federal republic of germany, Russian federation and Ukraine that has met occasionally since 2014 — discussed how to lower the temperature in their standoff.

Later more than 8 hours of talks in Paris, the group released a statement, through the French presidency, reaffirming unconditional support for the 2015 terminate-burn down, updated in 2020, between Russia-backed separatist forces in eastern Ukraine and the government in Kyiv.

The statement made no direct mention of worries about a potential Russian invasion of Ukraine, as the discussions focused instead on the end-fire agreement, known as the Minsk Accordance, which the Normandy grouping helped broker. The diplomats will come across again in Berlin in two weeks, it said.

A senior official in the French presidency said the discussions were "difficult" but somewhat encouraging. The official, speaking on the condition of anonymity in keeping with French government practice, said the coming together was a way to "exam the willingness of the Russians to negotiate."

"Our conclusion is that we got the sign of re-engagement that nosotros were looking for," the official said.

For President Emmanuel Macron of France, the coming together offered an opportunity to showcase Europeans trying to solve Europe's issues. He has made what he calls "European strategic autonomy" — in other words, greater independence from the United States — a fundamental theme of his presidency, while positioning himself as Europe'south de facto leader.

The meeting on Midweek brought together the Kremlin's deputy chief of staff, Dmitri Kozak, and the Ukrainian presidential adviser Andriy Yermak. They were joined past the pinnacle diplomatic advisers to Mr. Macron and Chancellor Olaf Scholz of Germany.

Russia's core demand is that Ukraine never get a fellow member of NATO. In 2008, NATO leaders declared that Ukraine and Georgia, quondam Soviet republics, "will get members of NATO."

The timing for such membership was left open, and there has been little or no progress toward information technology in the near 14 years since, but the statement has remained a thorn in Russian federation's side. For Mr. Putin, information technology was part of a series of humiliating faits accomplis presented to Russia after the collapse of the Soviet Union, as NATO has expanded east and lands that had been nether Moscow's thumb moved into the Western sphere. At present the Russian leader seems determined to impose his own outcomes on the ground.

Split talks on Ukraine betwixt the United States and Russian federation, held mainly in Geneva in recent months, take left France uneasy. "President Biden and Putin in Geneva discussing Europe eclipses Macron," said Jacques Rupnik, a prominent political scientist. "So this meeting today was important for him on the symbolic level."

With a presidential election looming in Apr, the longtime German Chancellor Angela Merkel now gone, and French republic holding the rotating presidency of the European Spousal relationship for the first fourth dimension since 2008, Mr. Macron is eager to demonstrate decisive European leadership. It is not clear, yet, that the rest of Europe is prepared to follow him.

The Normandy group formed later Russian federation seized Crimea from Ukraine in 2014. Information technology offered a context for talks that exclude the United States, without getting bogged down in U.Due south.-Russia disputes. Its name stems from the appointment of the grouping's cosmos, June half-dozen, 2014, the 70th anniversary of the D-Day landings in Normandy, France, during World War Two.

The U.S. plans to bolster the fuel supply to Europe, in case Russia cuts off gas and oil.

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Credit... Anton Vaganov/Reuters

The Biden assistants announced on Tuesday that it was working with gas and crude oil suppliers from the Heart E, North Africa and Asia to bolster supplies to Europe in the coming weeks, in an effort to blunt the threat that Russia could cut off fuel shipments in the escalating disharmonize over Ukraine.

European allies have been cautious in public about how far they would go in placing astringent sanctions on Moscow if it invades Ukraine. Frg has been especially wary; information technology has shuttered many of its nuclear plants, increasing its dependence on natural gas imports to generate electricity.

Many European officials have said they suspect President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia instigated the electric current crunch in the depths of winter for a reason, computing that he has more leverage if he can threaten to plough off Russian fuel sales to Europe.

So in recent weeks, American officials accept been planning an effort that has echoes of the Berlin airlift, the attempt to keep Westward Berlin supplied in the face of a Soviet blockade in 1948 and 1949. That event led to the creation of NATO, the defensive alliance that Mr. Putin is hoping to undercut by massing troops along the Ukrainian border, and past enervating that NATO pull dorsum from what he has chosen Russia's "sphere of influence."

Ukraine'due south leaders are playing downwardly the threat from Russia. Why?

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Credit... Ukrainian Presidential Press Service

KYIV, Ukraine — Despite Russian federation's military buildup at the Ukrainian border, NATO forces on alert and the United states alarm that an set on could come imminently, Ukraine's leadership is playing downwardly the Russian threat.

That has left analysts guessing almost the leadership's motivation. Some say it is to go along the Ukrainian markets stable, prevent panic and avoid provoking Moscow, while others attribute information technology to the state's uneasy acceptance that conflict with Russian federation is function of Ukraine'southward daily beingness.

Already this week, Ukraine's defense minister asserted that at that place had been no change in the Russian forces compared with a buildup in the spring; the head of the national security council accused some Western countries and news media outlets of overstating the danger for geopolitical purposes; and a Strange Ministry spokesman took a swipe at the United States and Britain for pulling families of diplomats from embassies in Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital.

This week's proclamations came later an address to the nation terminal calendar week by Ukraine's president, Volodymyr Zelensky, in which he asked: "What's new? Isn't this the reality for eight years?"

How to interpret the threat from Russian troops and equipment massed at Ukraine's border is a subject of intense debate. Ukraine'due south own military intelligence service at present says at that place are at least 127,000 troops on the border, significantly more than were deployed by Russia in the leap buildup.

That does non however include the troops arriving in neighboring Republic of belarus, a Russian ally, ahead of military exercises next month. The U.s. says those drills could be used as a pretext to place forces within striking altitude of Kyiv.

Even so, in an interview on Monday with the Ukrainian television station ICTV, Ukraine's defense minister, Oleksii Reznikov, seemed to wonder what all the fuss was nigh.

"Today, at this very moment, not a single strike group of the Russian war machine has been established, which attests to the fact that tomorrow they are not going to invade," Mr. Reznikov said. "That is why I ask you to non spread panic."

In that location are unlike reasons for the disconnect in messaging between Ukrainian officials and their American counterparts, analysts say. Mr. Zelensky must exist deft in drafting a message that keeps Western aid flowing, does not provoke Russian federation and reassures the Ukrainian people.

And later on viii years of state of war with Russia, experts say, Ukrainians but calculate the threat differently than their Western allies.

Russia steps up its disinformation campaign, aiming to build support at home and in Ukraine.

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Credit... Sergey Pivovarov/Reuters

As the U.s.a. issued warnings last month most the Russian troops on Ukraine'due south borders and President Biden threatened President Vladimir V. Putin with sanctions if he launched an invasion, researchers noticed an uptick in social media posts accusing Ukraine of plotting a genocide confronting ethnic Russians.

In i example, an arm of the Moscow-controlled broadcaster RT circulated a clip of Mr. Putin saying that events in eastern Ukraine "resemble genocide." News Front end, which the Country Department has chosen a disinformation outlet with ties to Russian security services, followed with an article on Dec. 13 that said the United States did not consider the massacres to be a genocide.

In the months since the Russian troop buildup began, Moscow and its online army of allies have pushed out old arguments about western Ukrainians beingness aligned with Nazism, take falsely accused the The states of using proxy forces to plot a chemical assault and have claimed that Russian federation'south planned war machine operations were intended to protect indigenous Russians or to pre-empt action by NATO, according to researchers.

American intelligence officials said Russian federation had produced a steady stream of disinformation well-nigh Ukraine since 2014. But they observed an uptick in December and Jan as Moscow increased pressure on the government in Kyiv.

Why Ukraine is important to Putin.

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Credit... Sasha Maslov for The New York Times

In speeches, interviews and lengthy articles, President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia and his close assembly accept telegraphed a singular fixation on Ukraine. The Kremlin thesis goes that Ukrainians are "one people" with Russians, living in a failing state controlled past Western forces determined to split up and conquer the post-Soviet earth.

Ukrainians, who ousted a Russia-friendly president in 2014 and are increasingly in favor of binding their country to Western institutions, would largely beg to differ. Simply Mr. Putin'due south conviction finds a receptive ear among many Russians, who run across themselves as linked intimately with Ukraine past generations of linguistic, cultural, economic, political and family ties.

Russians oft view Kyiv, at present the Ukrainian uppercase and once the centre of the medieval Kyivan Rus, every bit the birthplace of their nation. Well-known Russian-language writers, such as Nikolai Gogol and Mikhail Bulgakov, came from Ukraine, as did the Communist revolutionary Leon Trotsky and the Soviet leader Leonid Brezhnev.

Ukrainian is Ukraine'southward official language, but Russian — which is closely related — is notwithstanding widely spoken. Ukraine's president, Volodymyr Zelensky, now speaks Ukrainian in public only first gained fame as a Russian-language comedian who performed beyond the former Soviet Union.

To Mr. Putin — and many other Russians — the disharmonize with Ukraine is about a hurt national psyche, a historical injustice to be set right. I of his former advisers, Gleb O. Pavlovsky, in an interview described the Kremlin'southward view of Ukraine as a "trauma wrapped in a trauma" — the dissolution of the Soviet Union coupled with the separation of a nation Russians long viewed every bit simply an extension of their ain.

Mr. Putin has years of grievances nearly what he sees every bit Western overreach in Eastern Europe, and Ukraine has been the object of decades of Kremlin efforts to go on it inside Moscow's sway.

Mr. Putin also argues that a greater Western military presence represents an existential threat to Russia. Nuclear missiles placed there, he has said, would be able to reach Moscow with simply a few minutes' warning. American officials say the United States has no plans to base such missiles in Ukraine.

Listen to 'The Daily': Why Ukraine Matters to Vladimir Putin

Amongst fears that Moscow is preparing for an invasion, one thing is clear: The Russian president has a singular fixation on the old Soviet democracy.

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Listen to 'The Daily': Why Ukraine Matters to Vladimir Putin

Amid fears that Moscow is preparing for an invasion, 1 thing is clear: The Russian president has a singular fixation on the onetime Soviet republic.

michael barbaro

From The New York Times, I'g Michael Barbaro. This is The Daily.

[music]

Today: Russia is making preparations for what many fear may be a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, prompting warnings from the U.Due south. of serious consequences if information technology does. I spoke to my colleague, Moscow bureau chief Anton Troianovski, virtually what Vladimir Putin wants from Ukraine and only how far he may become to get it.

It'due south Wednesday, December 8.

Anton, describe the scene correct at present on the edge between Ukraine and Russia. What does it expect like? What exactly is happening there?

anton troianovski

Well, what you're seeing on the Russian side of the edge within 100 to 200 miles away is that thousands of Russian troops are on the move.

archived recording one

A top military official says intelligence shows well-nigh 100,000 Russian troops —

archived recording 2

Russian troops take massed on the edge of Ukraine.

archived recording 3

— troops on the border with Ukraine. And that's prompted fears of an invasion early adjacent year.

anton troianovski

We're seeing a lot of social media footage of tanks and other military equipment on the motion, on trains, in some cases, heading west toward the Ukraine border area from as far away as Siberia.

archived recording

Tensions betwixt Russian federation and Ukraine take been building for some time in the wake of —

anton troianovski

These satellite images that we're seeing prove deployment areas around Ukraine that were empty as recently as June that are now total of military machine equipment-like tanks and armored personnel carriers.

archived recording

The U.Due south. called it unusual activity.

anton troianovski

And plain, Russia moves its forces all the time. Information technology does large military exercises, snap military exercises all the time, but what nosotros're being told is that these military movements are very unusual. Some of them are happening at night and, in other ways, seemingly designed to obfuscate where diverse units are going. And experts are saying we're also seeing things like logistics and medical equipment existence moved effectually, stuff that y'all really would see if there were existent preparations being fabricated for large-scale military action.

michael barbaro

So what'southward happening in Russia is not just the movement of the troops that would possibly comport out an invasion, only the kind of war machine personnel and equipment that would exist required to deal with the repercussions of something similar invading Ukraine?

anton troianovski

Yes. So American intelligence officials are seeing intelligence that shows Russia preparing for a military offensive involving an estimated 175,000 troops —

michael barbaro

Wow.

anton troianovski

— as presently as early on adjacent year.

michael barbaro

And Anton, is Ukraine preparing for what certainly looks, from what y'all only described, as a potential invasion?

anton troianovski

They're in a really tough spot because no thing how much they prepare, their military would be utterly outgunned and outmatched. Ukraine doesn't have the missile defense and air defense systems that could forestall a huge stupor-and-awe entrada at the beginning of Russian military action.

They likewise don't know, if and when an attack comes, which direction information technology might come from, because Russian federation could attack from any of three directions. So we're not seeing a big mobilization in Ukraine right now, but our reporting on the ground there does prove a grim and adamant mood among the military. The soldiers on the border have made it clear that if it comes to it, they will be prepared to practice what they tin to make this equally costly equally possible for the other side.

michael barbaro

So I guess the question everyone has in this moment is why would Putin want to invade Ukraine correct now and bear on off what would no doubtfulness exist a major disharmonize, one in which, as you just said, Russian federation would have many advantages, but would nevertheless terminate up probably beingness a very deadly conflict?

anton troianovski

So plainly, we don't yet know whether Putin has made the decision to invade. He'south conspicuously signaling he's prepared to apply armed services forcefulness. What we do know is that he has been extraordinarily fixated on the outcome of Ukraine for years. Merely I remember to really understand it, you have to look at three dates over the final 30 years that really show us why Ukraine matters and so much to Putin.

michael barbaro

OK. So what'south the beginning appointment?

anton troianovski

The start one, 1991, almost exactly thirty years ago, the Soviet Wedlock breaks up, and Ukraine becomes an contained land. For people of Putin's generation, this was an incredibly shocking and even traumatic moment. Not only did they see and feel the collapse of an empire, of the country that they grew up in, that they worked in, that, in Putin's instance, the onetime M.G.B. officeholder that they served. But in that location was also a specific trauma of Ukraine breaking abroad. Ukraine, of all the former Soviet republics, was probably the one most valuable to Moscow.

It was a matter of history and identity with, in many ways, Russian statehood originating out of the medieval Kiev Rus civilization. There's the thing of civilisation with so many Russian language writers similar Gogol and Bulgakov coming from Ukraine. At that place was the matter of economics with Ukraine existence an industrial and agronomical powerhouse during the Soviet Union, with many of the planes and missiles that the Soviets were most proud of coming from Ukraine.

michael barbaro

So there's a sense that Ukraine is the cradle of Russian civilization, and to lose it is to lose a part of Russia itself.

anton troianovski

Aye. And information technology's a country of tens of millions of people that is also sandwiched betwixt modern-twenty-four hours Russia and Western Europe. So the other issue is geopolitical, that Ukraine in that sort of Common cold War security, East-versus-West mindset, Ukraine was a buffer between Moscow and the Due west. And so 1991 was the twelvemonth when that all brutal autonomously.

And and so by the fourth dimension that Putin comes to power 10 years later, he's already clearly thinking about how to reestablish Russian influence in that old Soviet space in Eastern Europe and in Ukraine in particular. We saw a lot of resources become in economically to effort to bind Ukraine to Russia, whether it's discounts on natural gas or other efforts by Russian companies, efforts to build ties to politicians and oligarchs in Ukraine. Really, a multipronged effort past Putin and the Kremlin to really gain every bit much influence equally possible in that one-time Soviet space that they saw every bit being so key to Russia's economic and security interests.

michael barbaro

Got information technology.

anton troianovski

And then fast forward to the second key date, 2014, which is the year it became clear that that strategy had failed.

archived recording

Now, to the growing unrest in Ukraine and the violent clashes between riot police and protesters.

michael barbaro

And why did that strategy fail in 2014?

anton troianovski

That was the year that Ukraine had its — what's called its Maidan Revolution.

archived recording 1

The situation in Kiev has been very tense.

archived recording 2

Downtown Kiev has been turned into a charred battlefield following ii directly nights of rioting.

anton troianovski

It's a pro-Western revolution —

archived recording

They want nothing short of revolution, a new government and a new president.

anton troianovski

— that collection out a Russia-friendly president, that ushered in a pro-Western government, that made it its mission to reduce Ukraine's ties with Russia and build its ties with the West.

archived recording

Ukrainians who want closer ties with the West are again dorsum in their thousands on Independence Foursquare here in Kiev. They believe they —

michael barbaro

Hmm. And what was Putin's response to that?

anton troianovski

Well, Putin didn't even see it as a revolution. He saw information technology as a coup engineered past the C.I.A. and other Western intelligence agencies meant to drive Ukraine abroad from Russian federation. And —

archived recording

With stealth and mystery, Vladimir Putin fabricated his movement in Ukraine.

anton troianovski

— he used his military machine.

archived recording

At dawn, bands of armed men appeared at the two main airports in Crimea and seized command.

anton troianovski

He sent troops into Crimea, the Ukrainian Peninsula in the Blackness Sea that'due south so dear to people across the quondam Soviet Union every bit kind of the warmest, most tropical place in a very cold role of the earth.

archived recording

Tonight, Russian troops — hundreds, perhaps as many as 2,000, ferried in transport planes — have landed at the airports.

anton troianovski

He fomented a separatist war in Eastern Ukraine that by now has taken more than 10,000 lives and armed and backed pro-Russian separatists in that region. So that was the yr 2014 when Russia's before efforts to try to bind Ukraine to Moscow failed and when Russia started taking a much harder line.

michael barbaro

And this feels similar a very pivotal moment because it shows Putin'south willingness to deploy the Russian military to strengthen the ties between Russia and Ukraine.

anton troianovski

Absolutely. Strengthened the ties or you can also say his efforts to enforce a Russian sphere of influence by military machine strength. And it's also the start of what we've been seeing always since, which is Putin making it clear that he is willing to escalate, he is willing to raise the stakes and that he substantially cares more about the fate of Ukraine than the West does.

And that brings u.s.a. to the tertiary engagement I wanted to talk most, which is early on this year, 2021, when we saw the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, actually start taking a more ambitious anti-Russian and pro-Western tack. He cracked down on a pro-Russian oligarch and pro-Russian media. He continued with armed services exercises with American soldiers and with other Western forces.

He kept talking up the idea of Ukraine joining NATO. That'south the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, the Western military alliance. And in a sense, this is what Putin seems to fearfulness the about, the idea of NATO becoming more entrenched in this region. So Putin made it clear that this was starting to cross what he describes equally Russia's red lines and that Russia was willing to accept activity to stop this.

michael barbaro

So to put this all together and understand why Putin is doing what he's doing when it comes to Ukraine, we have equally a backdrop here this fixation with Ukraine for historic, political, economic and cultural reasons. And what's new and urgent here for Putin is his conventionalities that Ukraine is on the verge of a major suspension with Russia and toward the West — in particular, a armed services alliance, NATO — and that he cannot tolerate. And so that brings united states of america upwards to now and this very imminent and scary threat of a Russian invasion.

anton troianovski

That'due south right, Michael. I spoke to a quondam advisor of Putin's recently who described Ukraine equally a trauma within a trauma for the Kremlin — so the trauma of the breakup of the Soviet Union plus the trauma of losing Ukraine specifically for all those reasons yous mentioned. And the thing is it's truthful.

Russia is losing Ukraine. I recall objectively, though, you take to say information technology'due south losing Ukraine in large part considering of Putin's policies, because of the aggressive deportment he's taken. And if you look at the polls before 2014, something like 12 percent of Ukrainians wanted to bring together NATO. At present, it's more one-half.

michael barbaro

Wow.

anton troianovski

So yous put all that together, Ukraine is indeed drifting toward the West. Information technology does seem like Putin feels like he'due south running out of time to stop this and that he's willing to escalate, he's willing to raise the stakes, to go on Ukraine out of the West. And what we're seeing right now on the edge is all that playing out.

[music]

michael barbaro

We'll be right back.

So Anton, the question right at present is will President Putin really carry out an invasion of Ukraine? And how should we be thinking nearly that?

anton troianovski

Well, it's quite perilous, of course, to try to get within Putin's head, only here's the case for invading at present. Number i: NATO and the United States take made it articulate that they are not going to come to Ukraine'southward defence force, considering Ukraine is not a member of the NATO alliance, and NATO's mutual defense pact but extends to full-fledged members. And of course, I call up, politically, Putin believes that neither in the U.Due south., nor in Western Europe, is in that location the will to see soldiers from those countries die fighting for Ukraine.

michael barbaro

Right. And President Biden has just very publicly pulled the United states out of the state of war in Afghanistan and more than or less communicated that unless American national security interests are at play, he will not exist dispatching troops anywhere.

anton troianovski

Exactly. And then Putin saw that, and he sees that potentially things could modify. If the West does accept more of a armed services presence in Ukraine in the future, allow lonely if Ukraine were to get a member of NATO at some point — it's not going to happen in the next few years, only peradventure at some betoken — then attacking Ukraine becomes a much more costly proposition. So it's a matter of state of war now could be less costly to Russia than war after.

michael barbaro

Right. The geopolitics of this moment may work in favor of him doing it in a way that it might non in a twelvemonth or 2 or three.

anton troianovski

Admittedly. And then there'due south a couple of other reasons. There's the fact that if we look at everything Putin has said and written over the final twelvemonth, he really seems convinced that the West is pulling Ukraine abroad from Russian federation against the will of much of the Ukrainian people. Polling doesn't really bear that out, simply Putin actually seems to be convinced of that. And so it seems like he may also be thinking that Ukrainians would welcome Russian forces as liberators from some kind of Western occupation.

Then tertiary, there'southward the economy. The West has already threatened severe sanctions against Russian federation were it to go alee with military action, but Russia has been essentially sanctions-proofing its economic system since at to the lowest degree 2014, which is when it took control of Crimea and was hit by all these sanctions from the U.S. and from the E.U. So Russian federation's economy is withal tied to the W.

It imports a lot of stuff from the Due west. But in many cardinal areas, whether it's technology or free energy extraction or agronomics, Russia is becoming more self-sufficient. And information technology is edifice ties to other parts of the earth — similar Prc, Republic of india, et cetera — that could allow information technology to diversify and have basically an economical base of operations even if an invasion leads to a major crisis in its financial and economic human relationship with the W.

michael barbaro

Right. So this is the argument that Putin can live with the costs of the earth reacting very negatively to this invasion?

anton troianovski

Exactly.

michael barbaro

OK. And what are the reasons why an invasion of Ukraine might not happen? What would be the case confronting it, if you were Vladimir Putin?

anton troianovski

Well, I hateful, I have to say, talking to analysts, particularly hither in Russia, people are very skeptical that Putin would get alee with an invasion. They point out that he is a conscientious tactician and that he doesn't like making moves that are irreversible or that could have unpredictable consequences.

And then if nosotros even look at the military activeness he's taken recently, the looting of Crimea, there wasn't a single shot fired in that. That was a very quick special-forces-blazon operation. What we're talking about here, an invasion of Ukraine, would exist just a massive escalation from anything Putin has done so far. Nosotros are talking nearly the biggest country war in Europe since World War Two, most likely. And it would have all kinds of unpredictable consequences.

There'due south also the domestic state of affairs to keep in mind. Putin does still have blessing ratings above 60 percent, but things are a bit shaky here, peculiarly with Covid. And some analysts say that Putin wouldn't want to usher in the kind of domestic unpredictability that could kickoff with a major state of war with young men coming back in body bags.

And and then finally, looking at Putin's strategy and everything that he'due south said, for all nosotros know, he doesn't really want to annex Ukraine. He wants influence over Ukraine. And the way he thinks he tin do that is through negotiations with the Usa.

And that's where the last fundamental point here comes in, which is Putin'south real confidence that information technology's the U.S. pulling the strings here and that he tin accomplish his goals by getting President Biden to sit down with him and hammering out a deal most the construction of security in Eastern Europe.

And so in that sense, this whole troop build-up might not be virtually an impending invasion at all. It might only be about coercive diplomacy, getting the U.S. to the tabular array, and getting them to hammer out an agreement that would somehow pledge to keep Ukraine out of NATO and pledge to proceed Western military infrastructure out of Ukraine and parts of the Black Bounding main.

michael barbaro

Well in that sense, Anton, Putin may be getting what he wants, right? Considering as we speak, President Putin and President Biden take simply wrapped up a very closely watched telephone call about all of this. And so is information technology possible that that call produces a breakthrough and perhaps a breakthrough that goes Putin's way?

anton troianovski

Well, that'due south very hard to imagine. And that's really what makes this situation and then volatile and and then unsafe, which is that what Putin wants, the Westward and President Biden tin can't really give.

michael barbaro

Why non?

anton troianovski

Well, for case, pledging to keep Ukraine out of NATO would violate the Western concept that every state should have the right to decide for itself what its alliances are. President Biden plainly has spent years, going dorsum to when he was vice president, really speaking in favor of Ukrainian sovereignty and self-determination and trying to help Ukraine take a more Western path. So Biden of a sudden turning on all of that and giving Putin what he wants here is hard to imagine.

michael barbaro

Correct, because that would create a very slippery slope when information technology comes to any country that Russian federation wants to have influence over. It would then know that the right playbook would be to mass troops on the edge and wait for negotiation with the U.Due south. and hope that the U.South. would basically sell those countries out. That's probably not something you're saying that President Biden would willingly do.

anton troianovski

Right. And and so, of course, the other question is, well, if Russia doesn't get what it wants, if Putin doesn't become what he wants, and so what does he exercise?

michael barbaro

So Anton, it's tempting to think that this could all be what you but described as a coercive diplomatic barefaced by Putin to excerpt what he wants from President Biden and from the West. But information technology feels like history has taught us that Putin is willing to invade Ukraine. He did it in 2014.

History has too taught us that he'south obsessed with Ukraine, dating dorsum to 1991 and the end of the Soviet Union. And it feels like one of the ultimate lessons of history is that we take to judge leaders based on their actions. And his actions right now are putting 175,000 troops nigh the border with Ukraine. And so shouldn't we conclude that information technology very much looks like Putin might carry out this invasion?

anton troianovski

Yes, that's correct. And of course, in that location are steps that Putin could take that would exist brusk of a full-fledged invasion that could still be really destabilizing and dissentious. Hither in Moscow, I've heard analysts speculate about peradventure pinpoint airstrikes against the Ukrainian targets, or a express invasion mayhap merely specifically in that expanse where Russian-backed separatists are fighting.

But even such steps could have really grave consequences. And that's why if you combine what we're seeing on the ground in Russia, about the border, and what we've been hearing from President Putin and other officials hither in Moscow, that all tells us that the stakes here are really loftier.

michael barbaro

Well, Anton, thank you very much. We appreciate your time.

anton troianovski

Cheers for having me.

michael barbaro

On Tuesday afternoon, both the White House and the Kremlin released details about the phone call between Putin and Biden. The White House said that Biden warned Putin of severe economic sanctions if Russian federation invaded Ukraine. The Kremlin said that Putin repeated his demands that Ukraine non be allowed to join NATO and that Western weapons systems not be placed inside Ukraine. Only Putin made no promises to remove Russian forces from the edge.

[music]

We'll exist right dorsum.

Here's what else you need to know today. On Tuesday nighttime, top Democrats and Republicans said they had reached a bargain to raise the land's debt ceiling and avoid the U.S. defaulting on its debt for the first fourth dimension. The bargain relies on a complicated erstwhile legislative maneuver that allows Democrats in the Senate to heighten the debt ceiling without support from Republicans, since Republicans oppose raising the debt ceiling nether President Biden. Without congressional action, the Treasury Department says information technology can no longer pay its bills after December fifteen.

Today'south episode was produced by Eric Krupke, Rachelle Bonja and Luke Vander Ploeg. It was edited by Michael Benoist, contains original music by Dan Powell and Marion Lozano, and was engineered by Chris Woods. Our theme music is by Jim Brunberg and Ben Landsverk of Wonderly.

That'southward it for The Daily. I'm Michael Barbaro. Run across you tomorrow.

How do you say Kyiv? Information technology can be hard for English language speakers.

Image

Credit... Sean Gallup/Getty Images

Information technology is not the virtually important question regarding the international maelstrom currently brewing in Ukraine.

But it is a very common question, and one that carries what some may find an unexpectedly political answer: How do you pronounce the uppercase's proper name, Kyiv?

Ukrainians have a preference — and it might non exist the 1 nigh commonly heard or causeless. It sounds more similar to "keev" than the two-syllable "key-EV" favored by many Russian speakers, but that'due south not exactly it, either.

Andrii Smytsniuk, a Ukrainian who teaches Ukrainian and Russian languages at the Academy of Cambridge, bankrupt the word downward letter by letter for English speakers in an interview on Tuesday. Information technology's a bit hard to describe.

The Yard sound is the aforementioned equally in English.

The Y is similar to the I sounds in "niggling bit."

The I is like to the first function of "yeast."

The V is a slightly shorter version of a Westward, as in "low," or nearly like the V in "love."

Marta Jenkala, who teaches the Ukrainian language at University College London, endorsed the pronunciation seen in a video by Oleksandra Wallo, an assistant professor of Slavic languages and literatures at the University of Kansas.

"It helps if you smile a little scrap to say it, specially on the first syllable," she said in the video.

There was a newsroom-wide reply-all apocalypse at NPR today, over the right pronunciation of Kyiv. All I can say is that is was absurd and perfect and everything you'd ever look such an email thread to be. I couldn't be more proud to work with such sticklers for accuracy.

— Sam Sanders (@samsanders) January 25, 2022

In 2019, Yuri Shevchuk, a lecturer in Ukrainian at Columbia University, told The New York Times that native Ukrainians stress the first vowel, and pronounce it similar the "i" in the discussion "child" or "lid." The 2d vowel is pronounced every bit a carve up syllable, and sounds like the "ee" sound in "keel." The 5 is also pronounced a bit differently, similar the finish of the discussion "low."

One common pronunciation, "key-ev," is the Russian form of saying information technology, and it is one Americans may tend to hear more often. Mr. Smytsniuk said he would argue for people pronouncing information technology the Ukrainian way "that is as close to the original as possible."

How to Pronounce Kyiv

Yuri Shevchuk, a lecturer in Ukrainian at Columbia University, demonstrates how to pronounce the proper noun of Ukraine's capital.

"It is the aforementioned matter with names," he said. "I think information technology makes sense to pronounce someone's proper noun the way the person would pronounce it."

A discussion of the city name and pronunciation is the first affair he goes over in his Ukrainian linguistic communication courses, he said, forth with "Ukraine" versus "the Ukraine." (When Ukraine became contained from the Soviet Wedlock in 1991, the preferred name became "Ukraine.")

Most people are unaware of how to pronounce Kyiv, so he tries non to aggressively correct people, Mr. Smytsniuk said. But many people practise take the issue seriously, he said.

"When I see American media, it's always different, it'due south always new, e'er a surprise," he said.

I Guess Reading and Righting Is Steel the One Saction.

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/01/26/world/ukraine-russia-us

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